Air cargo volumes up by e-com demand from Asia in Nov: Xeneta

Air cargo volumes were boosted by seasonal e-commerce demand from Asia in November, but Xeneta is doubtful the industry will see sustained stronger demand. November was the first month this year that saw demand outstrip supply, but, echoing IATA’s concerns, the rate analytics platform said global airfreight capacity will likely continue to outpace market demand next year. “This is due to anticipated weak consumer spending at least in H1 2024 and a continuing recovery in belly capacity for certain markets next year, boosted by improving passenger travel,” said the company. E-commerce demand from Asia to Europe and the US has seen air cargo volumes rise, but this shouldn’t be relied on to see air cargo demand, in what is already a subdued market, sustained into next year, explained Xeneta. Increased e-commerce volumes from Hong Kong and China to the US and Europe inflated global air cargo demand by 5% year over year in November. Retail brands Shein and Temu accounted for most of the rise in air cargo volumes and rates out of Hong Kong and China last month.
China to the US spot rates outpaced their October growth of +10%, climbing +11% month-over-month to $4.46 per kg. Air cargo spot rates from China to Europe followed a similar upward trend, rising to $3.96 per kg, up 9% from a month ago. These increases contributed to an overall 7% month-on-month improvement in the global air cargo spot rate, which averaged $2.45 per kg in November, compared to +2% in October. Demand slightly outpacing supply helped to push the global dynamic load factor to 60%, based on both volume and weight perspectives of cargo flown and capacity available.