Express cargo may decline, despite 4% surge in demand: Xeneta

Figures released by data provider Xeneta indicates that in February air cargo demand increased by 4 per cent year on year, the dynamic load factor was flat at 59 per cent and the average spot freight rate was up 10 per cent to $2.53 per kg. However, Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta said that there was also a ‘taste of what’s to come’ with strict rules for e-commerce shipments when rates from Shanghai to the US fell by 29 per cent month on month in February to $3.23 per kg. Van de Wouw said that Shanghai was likely to be the origin to first see the impact of lower e-commerce volumes. “Even allowing for the earlier Lunar New Year and the seasonal e-commerce slowdown at the start of the year, the fall in Shanghai-US spot rates, following the temporary removal of the de minimis exemption on Chinese shipments, may be one of the first indicators that the regulatory/political conversations are starting to affect the air cargo market,” he said. “If a fall in e-commerce volumes means there’s currently more available capacity to do business out of Hong Kong and southern China again, we would expect Shanghai to be the first market to feel this impact, and that’s what we saw in February. This may be short-term, but the uncertainty around e-commerce is impacting the market.”