Freighter fleet expected to grow by 2.3% per year

Aviation data firm Cirium is expecting the world’s freighter fleet to grow at 2.3% per year over the next 20 years. The data provider predicted that in total the world’s freighter fleet will reach over 4,100 aircraft by 2041 on the back of a 3.7% per year increase in cargo demand.
The forecast predicts the supply of some 3,560 freighter aircraft over the next 20-year period, including 1,060 newbuilds (30%) and 2,480 conversions from passenger aircraft (70%).
This figure reflects the near-term boom in conversions due to air cargo market dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic including e-commerce growth and rising feedstock availability.
“The freighter fleet benefitted during the Covid-19 crisis from the short-term reduction in passenger aircraft belly capacity and the rise of e-commerce will drive longer-term freighter fleet growth. “Conversion demand is being driven by the rise of e-commerce which gained momentum during lockdowns as well as increasing volumes of feedstock in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis,” Cirium said. “Focus is increasingly on newer generation conversion programmes, including the A321ceo, 737-800, A330ceo and 777-300ER.”