The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for May 2024 global air cargo markets showing continuing strong annual growth in demand. Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs*), rose by 14.7% compared to May 2023 levels (15.5% for international operations). This is the sixth consecutive month of double-digit year-on-year growth. Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTKs), increased by 6.7% compared to May 2023 (10.2% for international operations). “Air cargo demand moved sharply upwards in May across all regions. The sector benefitted from trade growth, booming e-commerce and capacity constraints on maritime shipping. The outlook remains largely positive with purchasing managers showing expectations for future growth. Some dampening, however, could come as the US imposes stricter conditions on e-commerce deliveries from China. Increased costs and transit times for shipments under $800 may deter US consumers and pose significant challenges for growth on the Asia-North America trade lane—the world’s biggest,” said Willie Walsh, IATA Director General.
Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:
- In May the Purchasing Managers Index (PMIs) for global manufacturing output and new export orders indicated expansion (52.6 and 50.4 respectively).
- Industrial production and global cross-border trade increased month-on-month in May (0.5% and 1.5% respectively).
- Inflation saw a mixed picture in April. In the EU and Japan, inflation rates fell to 2.7% and 2.8% respectively, while rising in the US to 3.3%. In contrast, China’s inflation rate remained near zero (0.3%) reflecting weak domestic demand due to high unemployment, slow income growth, and a crisis in the real estate sector, a trend that has persisted since 2023.