Cargo revenues likely to dip to US$120 billion: IATA

At the Annual General Meeting (AGM) held in Dubai for the first time from June 2 to 4, 2024, IATA has announced cargo revenues are expected to fall to US$120 billion in 2024 (from US$138 billion in 2023). Both are down sharply from the extraordinary peak of US$210 billion in 2021, but it is above 2019 revenues, which were US$101 billion and an improvement on the previous forecast of US$111 billion (announced in December 2023). IATA strengthened profitability projections for airlines in 2024 compared with its June and December 2023 forecasts. It also stated total air cargo volumes are expected to reach 62 million tonnes (MT) in 2024. Despite the strength of demand, the cargo yields are expected to fall 17.5 per cent in 2024, while remaining slightly above 2019 levels. This is a normalisation after extraordinary COVID highs. A key factor in this is the significant belly capacity that entered the market in 2023 in tandem with the recovery of passenger travel. In general, air cargo is in a period of correction following an exceptional year in 2021. Yields, capacity growth, the belly-dedicated freighter split, and other key metrics are moving from the extraordinary mid-pandemic situation towards a continuation of pre-COVID trends and levels.