Air cargo volumes to drop by 4% in 2023: IATA

Air cargo traffic is predicted to drop by a further 4% next year, while yields and revenues are also expected to weaken compared with this year’s levels, said IATA. The airline association’s head of policy analysis Andrew Matters, at IATA’s global media day suggested that cargo volumes are expected to fall 4.3% year on year to 57.7m tonnes, following on from an 8.1% fall this year to 60.3m tonnes.
“This reflects the challenging global economic backdrop in terms of global economic growth but also in terms of international trade,” Matters said. He added that as a result of load factors returning to pre-Covid levels, yields are expected to decline by around 22% next year, following on from a 7% increase this year, a 24% increase in 2021 and a 50% increase in 2020. Matters said that current yield levels were unsustainable. “It (22%) sounds like a big number and quite dramatic but it isn’t too unreasonable given the very strong increases we have seen in recent years,” he explained. Airline cargo revenues are expected to fall around 25% next year around be $149.4bn, although Matters pointed out this was still around 50% higher than pre-Covid levels. “The exceptional period that we have had looks like it is coming to an end. We started to come back to levels across a number of these variables that we are more accustomed to.”